Iran election results predictable: contested and violent [w/vid]

I hate to say this, but I told you so.

Every step of the Iranian election process was predictable -- the high turnout, the Iranian-government blocked participation, the suspicious election results, and the violent response.

Friday's election in Iran is indeed a large step forward in the political participation of Iranians both abroad and within their country, as indicated by estimates placing overall participation at upwards of 80% of the electorate, with international participation by Iranians abroad increasing 300%.

The run-up to the election was extremely exciting, especially to the rest of the world that witnessed the social fervor that swept across Iran as the younger and well-educated populace became involved. Also, challengers to Ahmadinejad dared to use English U.S. slogans, such as "Change" (used incessantly in the recent U.S. elections) in a country whose government has long promoted an anti-American position.

There were other remarkable "westernized" election procedures, such as a televised debate between Ahmadinejad and his leading challenger Mir-Hossein Mousavi Khameneh.

However -- little that has happened amidst the turmoil in the past three days has surprised me, and I hope that few others were either. Mousavi's campaign really took off in the last few days before elections, and his high-tech campaign (using Internet sites like Facebook and 21st century communication tools like mass-text messaging) was well utilized by the increasingly educated and more pro-western college-age youth and other supporters of Ahmadinejad's opponents.

But as predicted, the Iranian government limited Internet access to social networking sites in the few days before the election. And they shut down all text-messaging within the country. And there were reports of polling stations turning away would-be voters. And no independent monitors were allowed inside the polling stations.

What did the world expect from a country controlled by the elderly and extremely conservative Islamic religious leaders?! (View a BBC exploration into Iran's system of government)

Listen to this day-old CNN report in which Ahmadinejad is questioned by CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour. One must bear in mind that his quotes are indeed translated, but given the dire situation in his country, President-elect Ahmadinejad seems ridiculously flippant, overly praiseful, and sounds like an idiot puppet. He purposely refrains from ensuring the safety of opponent, and his reference to the odd traffic accident to me sounded a bit ominous.

Even if the elections weren't rigged and Ahmadinejad wasn't the puppet of the ruling religious elite, one would think that he would at least acknowledge that Iran IS NOT the most secure and stable country in the world.

The fact that there are four distinct parties involved in the riots -- Ahmadinejad's civilian supporters, Ahmadinejad's civilians opponents, Iran's religiously-controlled government, and the armed police and military encharged with keeping order -- provide a curious and dangerous imbalance.

I would hazard a guess that the majority of Ahmadinejad's opponents are younger and more liberal, more of the recent college graduates -- they will have learned of the effects of a 30% unemployment rate coupled with high inflation rates. They will be more familiar with the West and the economic and political difficulties that Iran faces in the world should they continue on their isolationist path. They will possibly even include less-religious individuals and those who believe in a more honest and transparent religious rule -- not that which is currently in place and holds its power through cover-ups, deceit, and unspoken fear.

I would also postulate that Admadinejad's supporters are the more conservative, more old-school Islam, more fearful of opposing their "beloved government" lest they or their loved ones be harmed, and fearful of any change -- they probably remember the 1979 revolution.

We shall see how far this fiasco continues. Let us hope that the Iranian people's fervor and energy so witnessed by the world in these past few days stirs itself into a more stable and respectable government, and not a bloody repeat of the 1979 revolution.


Here are a few concerning videos uploaded onto YouTube that I consider a few of the most informative:

A BBC and Associated Press Report



Huge crowds protest the election results. The crowd is orderly, but things could easily turn very nasty.



A compilation of still images -- Please note that the pictures are more graphic.